Washington, DC, September 19, 2009 — A U.S. commando raid in Somalia on Sept. 14 reportedly killed Kenyan Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, accused of links with al-Qaeda and of responsibility for a terrorist truck bomb at a Mombasa hotel in 2002. It is being applauded as a win by U.S. counter-terrorism officials, not least for its success in avoiding civilian casualties.

But critical observers warn that its impact could nevertheless be counter-productive, producing new recruits for extremist groups in Somalia and reinforcing accusations that the fragile Somali government is too close to Washington. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8256893.stm for a summary report.

The raid comes against a backdrop of a high-profile U.S. decision to provide at least 40 tons of arms to the Somali government, as well as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's meeting with Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad. The government of Sharif Ahmad, a moderate Islamist, has broad representation, and is supported by the African Union, the United Nations, and the Arab League.

But it controls only very limited territory. It is militarily vulnerable to extremist Islamist groups, although those groups are considered to represent only a minority of Somalis. But the closer the ties with the U.S., a U.S. military official commented earlier this year, the more the government is de-legitimized.

An extended analysis of U.S. policy by William Minter and Daniel Volman, written in June, appeared as the cover article in the July issue of In These Times. It stressed the temptations for the U.S. to get it wrong in Somalia, again (http://www.africafocus.org/editor/som0906.php).

Our conclusion, shared by many analysts, was that there is no good formula for getting policy right in Somalia. But there are many temptations to counterproductive military engagement. As of last June, we were of the opinion that the Obama administration to date had been appropriately cautious. But the latest developments seem to be moving down the slippery slope of a narrow counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency response, at the expense of diplomatic and humanitarian actions.

This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains excerpts from several articles with commentary both on U.S. policy and on other aspects of the situation in Somalia. Elizabeth Dickinson in Foreign Policy comments on disagreements within the U.S. government about the shipment of arms supplies to the government in Mogadishu.

Minnesota Public Radio comments on repeated airport searches of two prominent Somali-American professors at the University of Minnesota.

UN Special Representative for Somalia Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah reports on recent events in his latest monthly letter to the Somali diaspora (for additional background on Ould-Abdallah's activities, see http://unpos.unmissions.org - Ould-Abdallah's role is not uncontroversial, but he has consistently advocated an inclusive negotiation posture).

And an Oxfam press release highlights the horrific conditions in refugee camps for Somali exiles, such as the Dadaab camp in Kenya, estimated to house some 280,000 people.

Source: AfricaFocus, Sept 16, 2009

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