Because of the Houthis’ connections with Iran and its Shiite orientation, many commentators have likened them to Lebanon’s Hizb Allah. The analogy may be to some extent correct in terms of ideology and aspiration. However, when it comes to their political decisions they seem more akin to the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka rather than Hizb Allah of Lebanon. Why are we saying this? Because the Tamils Tigers made one decision that doomed their struggle and sealed their fate. The Houthis too have made a similar decision that may prove fatal to their cause. The Tamil decision that was crucial to their defeat was their assassination of Indian Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, which turned the Indian government against them and robbed them of the support they used to get from their compatriots across the Indian border. Similarly, because of their association with Iran, Houthis have turned Saudi Arabia against them, and thus achieved the rare feat of bringing the Saudi and Yemeni governments together fighting on the same side, and not the opposite sides, of a politico-military conflict. Like the Tamil Tigers, Houthis are now finding themselves sandwiched between the hammer of the Saudi Arabian military and the anvil of the Yemeni military.
Houthis may be fierce fighters. They may even survive the combined Saudi-Yemeni military assault, especially given the rugged mountainous terrain of the area of the conflict. But there is no question that they have made a huge blunder by involving Iran in their dispute with the Yemeni government, because by doing so they alarmed the Saudi government and gave it no option but to support the Yemeni government. In their eagerness to replicate the Shia Hizb Allah model and thus prove their authenticity, they failed to take into account the more relevant lesson of the Hindu Tamils. Houthis are very likely to pay (some would say they already are paying) a huge price for that mistake.











 

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