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World Bank
delegation arrives in Somaliland. IGAD delegation visits Somaliland.
Pakistani delegation arrives in Somaliland. The Egyptian ambassador
visits Somaliland. Ethiopian and Somaliland foreign ministers hold
talks. UK House Of Commons Debates Somaliland’s Elections. These are
just some of the news headlines in the last few weeks. Surely it has
been a busy week for Somaliland’s diplomacy, which raises the question:
what is behind all this diplomatic activity? Why now?
The most obvious reason is the approaching Somaliland presidential
election which is of vital importance to both Somaliland and the
international community. But there are other reasons too:
One, the tightening of the grip of the radical Islamists al-Shabaab and
Hizb al-Islam on much of the south which has made it abundantly clear
that the so-called transitional federal government (TFG) is for all
intents and purposes dead and south Somalia is now largely in the hands
of al-Qaida affiliated al-Shabaab.
Two, Puntland’s piracy has now developed beyond its humble beginnings
and has become a sophisticated operation that is carried out with the
collusion of the Puntland administration and is on the verge of making
international maritime commerce in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden
non-viable.
Three, the steadily deteriorating security situation in Puntland with
almost daily killings and bombings is beginning to make Puntland look
like the rest of southern Somalia, though on a smaller scale.
If we look at the greater Horn of Africa region, the situation is not
that encouraging either. Ethiopia and Eritrea are at loggerheads, so are
Eritrea and Djibouti. Sudan is at war with itself.
Across the water from the Horn of Africa, Yemen is facing a Zaydi
rebellion in the north, a secessionist movement in the south, and
innumerable grievances all over the country. With an already entrenched
al-Qaida network (Yemen is the ancestral home of Bin Laden), the Yemeni
conflict has drawn both Iran and Saudi Arabia.
After looking at this grim picture, any power whose interest lies in
peace and stability will only be alarmed at what it sees, and would
naturally take steps to strengthen the capacities of those countries
that have managed to avoid the fires of these wars. Somaliland is one
such country that has escaped being burned by the fires raging all
around it. And this may explain the increased attention that it has been
lately getting from the international community. The problem with this
sort of attention though is that it is emergency oriented and is geared
toward preventing major disasters, but it falls short of helping
Somaliland achieve its major objectives of diplomatic recognition and
economic development. Up to now, Somalilanders have usually been
appreciative of any attention they got from any country or international
organization. It is time for Somaliland to move away from this passive
mentality; instead of waiting for attention, Somaliland should become a
player in the region’s politics and take advantage of available
opportunities to strengthen its position and advance its cause. What
this means is that it should not only demonstrate to countries that it
can help them (which is what Somaliland has been doing all these years),
but it should also convincingly show that it can hurt them. This
muscular and forward leaning policy should especially be applied to
Djibouti which has been sabotaging Somaliland for two decades now while
Somaliland has been turning the other cheek. Somaliland should build
bridges with the Djiboutian opposition just as Djibouti has been doing
by supporting various Somali governments that claim sovereignty over
Somaliland (by definition any government that supports a Somali
government that claims sovereignty over Somaliland has forfeited
Somaliland’s goodwill). Somaliland should also stop guaranteeing
Djibouti’s border security (if Djibouti asks what happened, it should be
told to ask the TFG to guarantee its security since it does not
recognize Somaliland and recognizes the TFG). Such a step will also get
the immediate attention of the Western powers ensconced in Djibouti and
will let them know that their current policy of sub-contracting Somali
policy to the dictator of Djibouti, Ismail Omar Guelleh and
disenfranchising the people of Somaliland is unacceptable.
Similarly, Somaliland should re-establish links with the southern
Yemenis who want to restore their independence. Somaliland has
historical relations with southern Yemen. Somaliland was also the only
country to formally recognize Southern Yemen during its failed bid to
restore its independence. Such a move will certainly get the attention
of Ali Abdalla Saleh’s regime and will put Somaliland in a much stronger
position from which to deal with that regime which has been making
continuous efforts to block Somaliland’s recognition.
Finally, Somaliland should start cultivating relations with regional
powers such Pakistan, India, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Because of their
location and eagerness to secure their maritime and strategic interests
the former two countries (India and Pakistan) are naturally drawn to the
Gulf of Aden, and the port of Berbera could meet their needs. The recent
visit to Somaliland by a Pakistani delegation is a positive first step,
but other steps must follow soon.
To summarize, the almost complete collapse of the TFG, Puntland’s
deteriorating security and piracy, the Eritrean dispute with both
Ethiopia and Djibouti and the troubles in Yemen have changed the
regional geopolitical situation in Somaliland’s favor. The increasing
diplomatic visits to Somaliland highlights this change. So does the end
in the Saudi livestock ban. Now Somaliland has to work on making the
changed geopolitical environment deliver long-term and short-term
political dividends. Somaliland must say goodbye to the old approach of
being Mister nice guy. From now on, Somaliland should hurt the interests
of those who hurt its interests. After all, reciprocity is one of the
cornerstones of relations between countries.
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