By Dalmar Kahin

Surely, President Dahir Rayale Kahin signed a Six Point Agreement with the opposition party leaders, Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud Sillanyo of KULMIYE and Faysal Ali Warabe of UCID in October 10, 2009. And as predicted, Somaliland riots subsided as fast as they exploded. Luckily, at least a workable solution was reached. But was Mr. Kahin buying time to consolidate his power? 

Committed to have the National Election Commission NEC under his thumb, exploit the brewing conflict in the Gabiley District for his political gain, and hold Somaliland hostage for decades, Mr. Kahin gears up for a showdown—not an election—with the opposition parties. He is determined to cling to power. See the Six Point Agreement: http://somalilandpress.com/8897/somaliland%E2%80%99s-three-political-parties-sign-the-six-point-agreement/

Taking his cue from the neighboring countries and from abroad, Mr. Kahin calculates that a puppet NEC is the key to success. For instance, the Ethiopian Prime Minster, Mr. Meles Zenawi is known to control Ethiopia’s election commission. And oddly enough, the new Somaliland NEC makes its first trip to none other than Ethiopia. Surprise! What NEC could learn from Ethiopia which chokes its election committee stretches imaginations.

Similarly, the Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai hardly conceals his desire to have the top officials of the election commission as his allies. After Mr. Karzai’s rival withdrew from competing because of unabated frauds, Mr. Karzai “won” the typical one-man election. Paradoxically, the “democracy” once brought under the wings of Tomahawk missiles now conceives dictatorship. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/18/world/asia/18afghan.html

Mr. Kahin too knows if other leaders could flex their muscles over election committees and rig elections so could he. That is, either NEC members will conform to his demands during the run-up to the election, or they will be disposable. Only time will tell whether NEC members will capitulate to the president’s demands or show their determination to rescue Somaliland from chaos. But the truth is: the potential to corrupt them is out there.

Meanwhile, although constitutionally Mr. Kahin has no right to reject NEC members appointed by the opposition parties, he has rejected three times the only female, Ilhan Mohammed Jama, nominated by KULMIYE party. Consequently, she resigned. Perhaps, he knew she would be a tough shell to crack. Mr. Kahin and his manipulative cohorts would do whatever it takes to have a rubber-stamp NEC. http://somalilandpress.com/9151/rayaale-accused-of-undermining-the-electoral-process-a-statement-from-kulmiye-party/

Additionally, Mr. Kahin’s second formula for success is to exploit the Gabiley District’s conflict. Now in all fairness to him, the conflict goes back all the way to 1950, however; the ongoing fifty-nine-years-old land dispute could dictate the upcoming election, if need be. http://somalilandpress.com/9154/rival-clans-re-arming-over-somaliland-farm/ Why this particular Gabiley tribal skirmishing erupt like a violent volcano as the election date approaches hardly surprise anyone. Also, why Somaliland forces cannot crush the machete-wielding gangs from the warring tribes baffles many citizens.

Until recently, the majority of Somalilanders never heard of this decades-old land dispute between the two sub clans. But the conflict gains momentum as the election date approaches. Clearly, there is a correlation between the conflict and the election. 

The election itself has been postponed at least three times before. And it was none other Mr. Kahin himself who masterminded the election delays. He has also demanded term extensions which were granted. The last attempt to hold the election was September 27, 2009. However, once again, Mr. Kahin pulled a fast one on everyone. 

Running out of excuses to hog power, he decided to discard the biometric voter registration as to delay the election. Now admittedly, the integrity of the data was compromised because many people registered under multiple names. But he knew all along the voter registration was corrupted. Yet, he waited until the last minute to abandon it without consulting anyone else.

Shortly after, his UDUB party hinted to extend his term in office for one more year. Guess what! Whether we like it or not, he will get one more year extension. How? Well, by the time the servers are up and running and the corrupted data is straightened out, it will be at least six months, if not a year—something the opposing parties bitterly protested, yet they could hardly do anything about it.

The opposition parties face formidable dilemmas: on one hand, they want to get rid of Mr. Kahin and his UDUB party. They know he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the upcoming election. On the other hand, they want to avoid engulfing the nation into a violent firestorm, if he refuses to bow out gracefully. Mr. Kahin too is aware of the preceding facts, so he knows that he has them over a barrel. He also has the support of some of the neighboring countries. See my articles: “Ethiopia Backs Somaliland President Dahir Riyale Kahin” and “Somaliland President: Step Down Gracefully or Disgracefully”. http://www.americanchronicle.com/authors/view/4458

Due to the current regime’s determination to install stooge NEC members, an election runoff is highly plausible. Also, the ominous Gabiley District’s conflict could erupt into a full-scale war just days before the election. That is, another election fiasco lurks around the corner.

Clearly, it is the responsibility of all Somaliland citizens to safeguard their national interest which is to hold free, fair, and transparent election. However, both NEC members and the opposition parties should outsmart the current regime to salvage Somaliland. They must avoid flaring up an inferno at any cost.

And above all, the NEC members cannot afford to jeopardize the existence of Somaliland by bowing to the government’s demands or receiving bribes from it. Failure to put the interest of Somaliland first would inevitably result charging both the notorious government cliques and treacherous (not yet) NEC members with treason. Personal greed remains a threat to our existence as a nation. Mr. Kahin and his gangs are determined to cling to power: through the ballot or the bullet. But rest assured, when our justice system wakes up from its deep comma—there will be nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.

Email of the author: dalmar_k@yahoo.com

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