“The International Community Needs To Engage, Support And Assist Somaliland To Hold A Successful Democratic And Peaceful Election”
A Weekly Report by the Government of Ethiopia

A Weekly Report by the Government of Ethiopia

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, January 09, 2010 – (SL Times) – At the beginning of the week, there was heavy fighting at Dusa Mareb, in Galgadud region of central Somalia. The extremist opposition group, Al-Shabaab, made an attempt to retake the town from which it had been expelled by Ahlu Sunna wal-Jama'a just over a year ago. In recent months, Ahlu Sunna has increasingly become a major challenge to extremism in Somalia opposing both Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam and co-operating with the Government in a number of areas. Last week, it opened a congress in Abudwak, not far from Dusa Mareb, to choose a formal leadership and organize a proper structure as part of a process to pave the way for consolidating its place in central Somalia and lay down a foundation for it to reach full understanding and cooperation with the Government for action against Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam.

Al-Shabaab's attack on Dusa Mareb was apparently intended to try to disrupt Ahlu Suna's congress as well as retake the town. It briefly succeeded in over-running the town but within a few hours Ahlu Sunna reinforcements chased Al-Shabaab out, causing it over 70 casualties and capturing numerous weapons. It has been suggested, by some US commentators, that Al-Shabaab has been trying to 'encircle' Mogadishu by infiltrating into central regions again. If so, the defeat at Dusa Mareb, in addition to denting Al-Shabaab's morale, suggests it will need to rethink its strategy. Al-Shabaab's attack was meant to be coordinated with Hizbul Islam forces from neighboring Hiiraan region but these never arrived.

Al-Shabaab, following claims that hundreds of its fighters have completed military training in Mogadishu, has now announced it is planning to intensify its fight against the Government and in particular against AMISOM and its 5,200 troops in Mogadishu. AMISOM's mandate from the AU is due to expire on January 17, and in today's meeting the AU Peace and Security Council recommends its renewal. UN Security Council authorization for the mission, provided in Resolution 1872 (May 2009) also expires at the end of the month. The UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss a report from the Secretary-General on Somalia at the end of the month. This is expected to provide an assessment of progress towards implementing a three stage approach to Somalia, including the possibility of a UN Peacekeeping Force. This, of course, is something that has been under consideration now for over a year.

Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam have previously threatened to launch terrorist attacks on Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Djibouti and even further afield. Evidence for the growing internationalization of Al-Shabaab can be seen in recent terrorist attacks including its attempt to attack an Australian military base a few months ago, and the suicide bombing in Mogadishu last month carried out by a Danish resident of Somali origin; last week, another Somali with apparent links to Al-Shabaab attempted the murder of a Danish Cartoonist; and a Swedish artist received threats from Somalia. A Hizbul Islam spokesman in Hiiraan, Sheikh Shuriye Afrah, who claimed Ethiopian forces had been responsible for attacks on Hizbul Islam near Belet Weyne, said Hizbul Islam was now preparing to launch attacks into Ethiopia. Al-Shabaab has specifically offered to send reinforcements to Al Qaeda fighters in Yemen; two boatloads of arms arrived in Kismayo last week from Yemen.

Now the World Food Program (WFP) has been forced to suspend much of its work in southern Somalia in the face of threats against its staff and unacceptable demands by Al-Shabaab. Last November, Al-Shabaab told WFP that it must remove women from all jobs within the organization. It also demanded a regular six-monthly payment, of US$20,000, to cover "security". A little later it told WFP that it, and all those who worked for it, must cease operations on January 1st. In December, a WFP security officer was shot and killed in Belet Weyne, and faced by this ultimatum, WFP complied for the safety of its staff. WFP offices in six towns have now been closed and food supplies, staff and equipment have been moved to safer areas under Government or Ahlu Sunna control. According to WFP this has severely disrupted its ability to reach many of the most vulnerable areas of the south. An Al-Shabaab spokesman in Kismayo, Sheikh Ibrahim Garweyn, said he was delighted that WFP and "other spy agencies" had suspended their food distribution and other activities in Somalia. Despite the present drought and widespread food shortages affecting much of Somalia, Sheikh Ibrahim dismissed the current problems, claiming "we have great land and can grow our own crops". Another Al-Shabaab spokesman in Mogadishu subsequently claimed Al-Shabaab had not asked WFP to leave nor had it demanded payments for "security".

All this underlines the fact, whatever some western 'experts' on Somalia might still think, that neither Al-Shabaab nor Hizbul Islam have any intention of engaging in dialogue or of moderating their activities. Their policies have in fact been quite consistent in their determination to overthrow the Government of Somalia by whatever means possible and set up their own extremist regime in Somalia, an approach shared by their main foreign supporter in Asmara. The international community should now be in absolutely no doubt about the dangers of the terrorist threats emanating from Somalia. It is not too late for it to respond to these though time is certainly running out. In the last few days the office of Mr. Gordon Brown, the UK Prime Minister has been quoted as saying that both he and President Obama now believe that a larger peacekeeping force is required in Somalia and that they will support this when the issue next comes up at the UN Security Council.

It would be premature to welcome this in light of the long and still continuing process of consideration of a UN peacekeeping force for Somalia. There is no doubt that in addition to speeding up consideration of a UN Peacekeeping force, the international community also needs to act urgently to strengthen the Somali Government and its allies, including Ahlu Sunna, to fulfill its promised pledges of assistance, and to provide training, logistics and finance, and diplomatic support to the Government. AMISOM must be strengthened and raised to its planned capacity of 8000 troops. The administration in the autonomous region of Puntland, coming under increasing efforts at destabilization by extremists and pirates, deserves concrete support from the international community. Equally, the international community needs to engage, support and assist Somaliland to hold a successful democratic and peaceful election, and provide for a smooth transition to ensure continued peace and stability there. The current situation in fact provides a critical, as well as an opportune occasion for the international community to engage fully with Somalia and create a real possibility to establish the TFG on firm ground.

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Source: Government of Ethiopia, January 08, 2010

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