By Dr. Mohamed-Rashiid Sh. Hassan
This is the twenty-sixth article of a series of articles that Dr. Mohamed-Rashid analyses the military coup and its legacy
The demise of the Somali State

The demise of the Somali State can be traced to its origins and its early development. The old structures of the society were still very much intact when independence finally arrived. State collapse is not a short-term phenomenon but a cumulative, incremental process similar to a degenerative disease.

Furthermore, the inhabitants of African states, whether they should properly be designated citizens or subjects, do not readily regard their rulers as providing a legitimate authority, and state power does not rest on a secure foundation of popular belief in the right of rulers to rule. Nearly three decades of independent African government have led to situations where it is the decomposition of state structures, the tendency to de-institutionalisation, which are remarked.

The Structure of the houses of cards

The family network is symbolically represented as Cards with the Chairman as the chief  player

This model shows that from the start of 1980s to 1990s, the Somali State only existed artificially and in reality had entered its final death stages. One family, the family of the President Mohamed Siad Barre consisting of various “houses of cards”, occupied the nation-state space.  The family was confident they would remain in power for a long time or even permanently; they were blind to see the anger and indignation of the Somali masses whom they were oppressing. The anger reached its peak and the combined forces of oppositions in 1991 overthrew regime.

Interim President Sworn in

On 27^th January 1991, Ali Mahdi Mohamed was officially nominated Interim President for Somalia. He was one of the main supporters of the Manifesto Group. He was the owner of one of the main hotels in Mogadishu, the Maka Al-Mukarama, who came from the Abgal, a sub-clan of the Hawiye and was MP in the civilian government preceding the military government. The hasty appointment of Ali Mahdi is like this story. “There were two nomads each one carrying a jar (dhiil) of milk were on way to the city to sell the milk and on the road they saw marathon runners. One of them just handed his jar to his companion and said "Alasow, keep this jar for me" “Calasow, dhisha ii qabo” and he joined the marathon runners. He was a good runner and passed every one in the line. Eventually he was the first to reach the winning line. Apparently the organisers did not notice the disguise and the man was declared the winner of main prize”.

This political anecdote tells a lot about how Ali Mahdi became President unexpectedly after the flight of Siyad Barre from the capital. The story wants to convey that Ali Mahdi's appointment was premature and a political mistake to say the least.  It pre-empted a genuine discussion about the future of the country.  The decision alienated all the armed groups, who rightly believed the victory was theirs. 

During the inauguration ceremony, Ali Mahdi made a short speech, he said. "The fighting that the USC started in the South was responsible for the overthrow of the regime". This was an unfortunate political statement, which I believe will go down in history as it finally destroyed any chances of the SNM to share a government with the South. It made the SNM political leadership furious. They saw this as a complete misrepresentation of the history of the armed struggle because in fact the USC joined the armed struggle at a later date and it was the SNM forces that gave the regime its greatest shock and hastened its downfall, after they captured the Northern Regions (now Somaliland). The statement gave unprecedented ammunition to the section of the SNM supporters who always wanted withdrawal from the union. From that day onwards, the SNM concentrated only how to bring together the Isaq and non-Isaq clans in the Somaliland, and prepare the likelihood of a unilateral declaration of independence of   “Somaliland”.

A power struggle started between the two leaders of the two wings of the USC, general Aidid and Ali Mahdi. Before the USC disagreement was resolved, a reconciliation conference was held in Djibouti 15 July 1991 sponsored by the Djibouti government, with the support of IGAD countries (Inter governmental authority for development). Participants hurriedly confirmed the choice of Ali Mahdi Mohamed as a temporary President. General Aidid was invited to the conference but refused to come describing it a conspiracy to deny the power of opposition. The Somali National Movement (SNM) did not participate in the Djibouti conference either saying that the conference had nothing to do with them and must be restricted to Southern political organizations and southern issues.  It was clear from the start that this conference was premature and doomed to failure, since those who were involved in the armed struggle refused to attend.  General Aidid refused to recognize Ali Mahdi’s appointment, and after the conference, internal civil war started among USC supporters, or in another words within the Hawiye.

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