We have been reporting for some time now on the steadily deteriorating situation in Puntland. The almost daily bombings and assassinations has finally prompted Puntland’s government to react militarily. The result is the Galgala conflict. But instead of making the situation better, it has made it worse, so much worse, that it is beginning to be noticed by the international media.

Before deciding to militarily confront his opponents, President Abdirahman Faroole had tried almost every trick in the book. He tried to solve his problems through clan channels. It did not work. He gave positions to some Islamists. It did not work. He waged war in Galgala and that did not work.

The international community is reluctant to give Abdirahman Faroole full support because they know he is complicit in piracy, as documented by the United Nations.  The US does give some support to Puntland Intelligence Agency (PIS) but that US connection has also made PIS a liability in the eyes of many Puntlanders.

Some might say, all right, things are pretty grim in Puntland, but what does that have to do with Somaliland?

Our answer is: look at your map. Puntland shares a border with Somaliland and chaos there or its takeover by extremists will have serious consequences on Somaliland’s security. Moreover, even if neither total chaos takes place in Puntland nor al-Shabaab takes it over, it is very likely that Puntland would emerge from the Galgala conflict even weaker than it is now. Any of these outcomes will have consequences for Somaliland. Therefore, it is imperative that Somaliland start making plans for dealing with the changing situation in Puntland. The objective of such plans should be for Somaliland to administer all of its territories and at the same time help in preventing chaos or the take over of Puntland by religious extremists.

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