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One of the paradoxes of deeply divided societies is that the same
divisions that encourage the takeover of these societies by autocrats
end up undermining autocratic rule. The autocrat rises to power because
of the divisions in society but he is also brought down because of those
same divisions. It is a deadly cycle, and Yemen since it was declared a
republic in 1962 has suffered from this problem (the problem existed
during the Imamate but it was restricted within a smaller circle because
Zaydi doctrine specified that only the descendants of Prophet Muhammad
could rule, which meant that the overwhelming majority of Yemenis,
including President Ali Abdalla Saleh and al-Ahmar family, were
ineligible for ruling the country).
Having risen to power precisely because of those deep divisions in
Yemeni society, Ali Abdalla Saleh is now on the receiving end of the
damage those divisions can inflict. Even the denouement of his rule is
proceeding in a manner consistent with the paradox of power in deeply
divided societies. Because both the forces arrayed against him and those
supporting him are rife with divisions, it is unlikely that a unified
center will emerge that will quickly replace him. The current opposition
composed of demonstrating youth, al-Ahmar family (Hamid al-Ahmar is the
strong man of al-Islah party), tribal elements, the south, Houthis and
al-Qaeda have little in common other than opposing Ali Abdalla Saleh.
What is more likely to happen is that each of the various political
players with very little trust or coordination among them, will try to
strengthen its position., and whoever initially gains control of the
state will eventually have to contend with the divisive forces in Yemeni
society as they start working against him.
Ali Abdalla Saleh thought he would avoid falling victim to this cycle
(and at the same time escape the fate of his two predecessors, al-Hamdi
and al-Ghashmi, both of whom were murdered) by ensconcing his family
members in the security and military nodes of the regime. Little did he
know that he was actually fulfilling the conditions that would lead to
the unraveling of his regime. Or, may be he knew, but felt he had no
other choice. Perhaps that is what he meant when he likened ruling Yemen
to "dancing on the heads of snakes".
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