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The Arabic press in general, and the Yemeni press in particular, is fond
of using the term al-Sawmalah or Somalization to refer to the
frightening prospect of the disappearance of central authority in their
country and its slide into chaos and lawlessness. The threat of
Somalization was used by the various political parties to give urgency
to their political demands and to extract concessions from their
adversaries. As the opposition to President Ali Abdalla Saleh’s rule
gathered momentum, scaring people and foreign governments with the
possibility of Yemen turning into another Somalia became one of his
favorite mantras. But regardless of which Yemeni invokes the fate of
Somalia, the fact is, with every passing day, such scenario seems less
far-fetched.
To begin with, the Yemeni capital, Sana, is already divided into a
northern part controlled by Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar and a southern part
controlled by the president’s family. This is not different from what
happened in Mogadishu which used to be divided into a northern part
under Ali Mahdi and a southern part under Aidid and is now divided
between Al-Shabaab and AMISOM forces. Second, armed conflict has broken
out between yesterday’s allies, al-Islah and Houthis, thus splintering
the opposition and strengthening the divisive dynamic in Yemeni
politics. Third, al-Qaeda has established strong bases in Abyan and has
taken over the town of Zanjibar, and there are signs they are extending
their influence to Lahj; furthermore, the fighting in Abyan has resulted
in refugees fleeing to Aden which has added to the pressure on the
already suffering people of Aden. Fourth, the increasing disappearance
of the symbols and substance of central authority, or any authority for
that matter, from many parts of southern Yemen has created a political
and security vacuum there.
Of course, despite all the above worrisome signs, Yemen is different
from Somalia in two important ways which may help in preventing the
Somalia scenario from taking place:
1-Unlike Somalia, and unlike many countries in the Middle East, Yemen,
especially North Yemen, is not a colonial invention, and has a long
history as a state.
2-Yemen has two dominant tribes (Hashid and Bakil) that have
traditionally provided the central (or centralizing) authorities with
the military muscle to impose their will.
But despite the existence of these two pro-centralization factors, the
overall political dynamic at the moment is one that is heading toward
fragmentation, which could lead to another Somalia.
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