As the Kenyan incursion into Somalia unfolds, one of two things could happen. It could be an operation of limited duration and scope whose aim is to provide better border security for Kenya or it could be a more ambitious operation in which Kenyan troops seize Somali territory. Based on the pronouncements of Kenyan officials, it seems that it is the latter case. And it is not by accident either, for there are strong forces pushing Kenya in the direction of seizing Somali territory, especially the city of Kismayo. Chief among those forces is that of economic expansion. Saying this is not exactly revealing an unknown secret, for Kenya’s desire to establish an exclusive economic zone that borders Somalia is already on public record. It is also public knowledge that Kenya recruited and trained Somali militias with the aim of establishing a Somali regional administration that will act as a proxy for it. From Kenya’s perspective the kidnapping of European tourists, international hostility to al-Shabaab, and pressure from the tourist industry and Western governments to do something, may have provided an irresistible opportunity to execute these long-held plans.
But there is a down side. To begin with, in addition to fighting al-Shabaab, Kenya will be in alien territory and will be dealing with a Somali population that has a history of conflict with the Kenyan state. Moreover, since Kenya seems to have started this operation on its own, and without European or American sponsorship, it will have to pay for it from its own budget which may prove to be a drain on its financial resources. Furthermore, military operations like this one are much easier to start than to end and Kenya may find itself bogged down in a lose-lose situation whether it stays in Somalia or leaves. Such an eventuality, which has a reasonable chance of taking place, will be damaging to Kenya, a fragile state which only a few years ago suffered from national breakdown and major ethnic violence. Moreover, Somalia has a way of bringing even the best plans to tears. All of these factors make the previous cautious Kenyan policy toward Somalia more appropriate than its present course. As a next-door neighbor to Somalia, Kenya should know that in matters pertaining to Somalia, discretion is the better part of valor.
















 

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