For about two decades now, three items (terrorism, piracy and famine) have dominated the news from Somalia, so it might be thought that the news from Somalia is easily predictable. This is true, to some extent, but within these three dominating themes, there are often plots, subplots, and surprises. The latest such subplot is the Kenyan invasion of Somalia. In a way, the Kenyan incursion into Somalia should have not been a surprise, for it was already public knowledge that Kenya had plans to invade Kenya. Once they were inside Somalia, the Kenyans at first behaved as if they knew exactly what they were doing and claimed that they not only had the blessings of the US and France but that both France and the US were involved in the military operations. But soon it became apparent that Kenya did not have the support of France or the United States, or at least it did not have the level of support that it was claiming (In fact the latest statement by the US Assistant Secretary of State for African affairs, Johnnie Carson, on reports of Ethiopian troops entering Somalia, was widely interpreted as an implicit criticism of the Kenyan operation).
Finding itself with little or no international support, the Kenyan government changed its tune. Instead of making its usually boastful statements about its military capabilities and successes on the field, it was now openly begging for assistance. The media became saturated with headlines such as, “"Kenya asks for US help against al-Shabaab", "Kenya asks Israel for help fighting Al-Shabaab", and “Kenya seeks UAE support in war against Somalia's Al-Shabaab.” From its various and frequent calls for help one would have thought Kenya was fighting a super power.
Then came news of Ethiopia’s entry into Somalia. Ethiopia of course denied it, but Somali residents said it did, and the US Assistant Secretary of State for African affairs, Johnnie Carson, issued a warning to Ethiopia not to cross into Somalia, and so the plot thickens. Some of the questions raised by the maneuverings of the various foreign countries are: did the Kenyans ask the Ethiopians to start operations in order to take pressure off them, or were the Ethiopians trying to prevent their interests and role in Somalia from being marginalized by Kenya and Uganda. The other relevant question is: did the US double-cross Kenya (as they did with Ethiopia in 2006) by first encouraging them to invade Somalia, then blaming them for doing so.
Whatever might be the case, with IGAD giving Ethiopia a green light to enter Somalia yesterday, and the Kenyan invasion entering a critical stage, the plot is bound to thicken even further.



















 

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