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Somaliland’s political scene these days is dominated by three
phenomena: (1) the formation of many new political groups that want to
participate in the coming elections; (2) serious splits within two of
the old political parties; (3) attempts by religious extremists to take
advantage of Somaliland’s open political system and establish themselves
as legitimate organizations with the aim of subverting Somaliland from
within. Since we have dealt with the issue of religious extremism in
previous issues, we will restrict our comments and analysis to the first
two topics.
The splintering of Somaliland parties started with UCID. Being the
smallest of the three parties might have led some people to dismiss what
happened within UCID as the inconsequential troubles of a small
struggling party. But soon after, came the split within UDUB, a party
that governed Somaliland for many years, and what happened could no
longer be brushed aside as being limited to a specific party. In other
words, if UDUB could split into two parts, the same could happen to any
party. The question then becomes what is causing these splits. There are
several causes but the main one is personal or group ambition. Since
elections are due to be held, many individuals and groups are trying to
position themselves so they will become the leaders of their parties
with the foremost aim that, if they win, they would execute an agenda
that benefits their backers. This is a manifestation of the old problem
of factionalism and it is not unique to Somaliland. Numerous political
theorists, especially James Madison have dissected it, and it is
generally recognized that to rid a country completely of factionalism
would require such drastic steps that could do more damage than
factionalism itself, and that the best way to deal with it is to
encourage steps that make it difficult for factions to dominate the
political life of a country.
If we look beyond the current political situation and examine
traditional Somali society, we will find this phenomenon at play in
traditional Somali society too. Scholars call it the principles of
fission and fusion in Somali politics, whereby individuals split from
groups, and groups split from groups, only to form new groups or join an
existing group. So what is happening among political parties is not
something that is totally new to Somalilanders but has precedent in
Somali society. However, Somaliland now has two advantages that
traditional Somaliland society did not have. The first one is the
proliferation of political groups has diluted the potential impact of
any single group. Second, Somaliland is a state with institutions that
have set the limits for the pursuit of political interests and
factionalism. The resolution of UCID’s conflict through Somaliland’s
institutions is a good example. Somaliland’s legal and other
institutions should be able to find a solution for UDUB’s problem, too,
if UDUB’s leaders fail to solve the problem themselves.
To sum up, factionalism and the pursuit of self-interest is part of
politics, so we should not be surprised by the splintering of old
parties or the formation of new political groups, the important question
is whether Somaliland’s political system can handle these phenomena, and
so far it has proven itself capable of doing so. That capability is
going to be severely tested with the coming elections.
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