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With the talks between Somaliland and Somalia expected to move to the
next, and more difficult, phase, Somaliland has to look into ways
through which it can bring pressure to bear on the TFG in order to make
it accede to Somaliland’s independence. One way by which Somaliland can
pressure the TFG is to cultivate allies in the south. Obviously,
pursuing such a course would mean that Somaliland would be involved in
the politics of the south, but this would not be direct involvement, but
rather through allies, or by proxy. Somaliland would not be the first
country that follows such policy of involvement through proxies in
southern Somalia. In fact, this is the script that is pursued in south
Somalia by Kenya, Ethiopia, IGAD, EU, and the US, all of whom support
the group, or groups, that they think will further their interests in
the south.
This means that Somaliland will have to evaluate which southern group,
region, and individuals is willing to cooperate with it and help it
achieve its goals. If Somaliland’s government concludes that there is no
such group now, then they could start working on creating such group.
After all, many of the groups operating now in the south were created
with the help of foreign powers, and sometimes they are the invention of
foreign powers.
As we speak, with the expected seizure of Kismayo from al-Shabaab,
countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia and others are all busy trying to
ensure that their protégés and allies will take part in replacing
al-Shabaab in Kismayo. The reason these countries are involved in
Kismayo and other places is no mystery. Through such groups, they want
to safeguard their interests in the new emerging situation.
For the longest time, the southern political elite sought to have
institutional political influence in Somaliland that would extend the
hegemony of the south over Somaliland. Oddly enough, the reverse has
never happened, and there were no similar institutional efforts by
Somaliland. Yes there were many individual Somalilanders who sought and
gained political influence in the south, but they did so as individuals
and not as part of a plan to extend Somaliland’s influence in the south.
The time to break this pattern has arrived. Instead of being on the
receiving end, Somaliland has to project its clout further south. The
best way to do this, without compromising its independence, is through
proxies.
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